Background

Bodeker Scientific was contracted by Water Strategies Ltd to contribute to the SLMACC Climate Shock Vulnerability project. The purpose of the SLMACC project was to analyse the impacts of climate shock-events to identify farm system vulnerability, sources of resilience, and options to mitigate risk and promote proactive adaptation.

Research Aims

The team at Bodeker Scientific worked closely with Kōmanawa Solutions Ltd to deliver:

1. An Infinite Improbability Drive that, for a given storyline of temperature, precipitation conditions and irrigation restrictions, quantitatively defines the likelihood of that storyline occurring.

2. A Stochastic Weather Generator that, for a given storyline, can generate time series of daily:

   1. Maximum and minimum temperature.

   2. Broadband radiation.

   3. Precipitation.

   4. Potential Evapotranspiration.

The storylines were provided by Kōmanawa Solutions, in consultations with farmers and other expert advice.