Bodeker Scientific is working under contract to NIWA to analyze the latest output from the NIWA regional climate models. The goal is to g enerate data sets and associated maps of changes in climate extremes from 1971 to 2100. We also plan to use climate pattern scaling approaches developed in the first two years of the programme to incorporate model structural uncertainties, in addition to greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, in the assessments of changes in extreme events. Specifically we are producing data sets and maps of:- Frequency of hot days (days above 25°, days above 30°),
- Frequency of frosts (days below 0°, days below -2°),
- Frequency of hot spells (5+ consecutive days with Tmax >25° or 30°)
- Length of hot spells (number of consecutive days with Tmax >25° or 30°)
- Frequency of cold spells (5+ consecutive days with Tmax < 10° or 15°)
- Length of cold spells (number of consecutive days with Tmax < 10° or 15°)
- Frequency of wet days (days above 1mm, 10mm, or 20mm)
- Frequency of wet spells (5+ consecutive days with > 1mm on each day)
- Frequency of dry spells (15+ consecutive days with < 1mm on any day)
We will also write a paper on these results. The maps on the right shows the change, from the first decade of this century to the last decade of this century in the number of days when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 25°C under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. For more information on the Climate Changes Impacts and Implications project go to http://ccii.org.nz/.
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