Bridging the gaps between Global ENSO Science and regional processes, extremes and impacts.Penehuro Lefale attended the 3rd International Conference
on ENSO, held at the Auditorium of the Centro Cultural “Liberador Simon
Bolivar” ex MACC-Malecom, in Guayaquil,
Ecuador from 12 to 14 November. The conference was organised by CIFFEN(International Research Centre on El Nino Phenomenon), with support from
WMO, WCRP, INAMHI and Sectratiat de Gestion de Riesgos. The goal of the Conference was to review
progress on the science of ENSO and related regional processes in order to
improve the prediction of regional impacts ; and to contribute to development of
decision support frameworks that allow timely and appropriate planning and
response at national and local levels. The conference was organised in six plenary
sessions for oral and poster presentations under the following themes:
One
of the major questions during the conference was “why the “big” El Nino of 2014
that was predicted at the beginning of the year did not eventuate?” A number of
‘suspects’ that may have contributed to the failure of the climate models were discussed.
These include, but not limited to, inter-decadal oscillation, weak westerly
wind bursts, ENSO not yet incorporated into the models. Findings from ongoing
research on the impacts of ENSO on sectors (e.g. fishing, health, agriculture,
energy and the insurance) were well received. Lefale was invited in his role as Chair of the
AMS STAC on MOSH. He announced during the Conference the venue and time of the
next AMS sponsored 11th ICSHMO, to be held in Santiago, Chile from 5
to 9 October 2015. |
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